Bulletin de la Société Zoologique de France

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titre	Bulletin de la Société Zoologique de France
page	7/7
date de publication	18.01.2018
taille	0.59 Mb.
type	Bulletin

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Appendix S3. Model performances

Figure S3.1 Boxplots of (a.) TSS and (b.) ROC values of all the calibrated models for all the species. Dashed line: TSS cutoff of quality for the ensemble modelling.

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Appendix S4. Outputs for scenario B2A

Figure S4.1. A-J. Predicted range change of the 10 spider species by 2050 according to scenario B2A. K. Summed values of predicted range changes of the 10 spider species by 2050. Unsuitable: areas that are currently unsuitable and will remain unsuitable in the future; Lost: areas currently suitable that would lose their suitability in the future; Kept: areas that are currently suitable and would still be suitable in the future; New: areas that are currently not suitable but would become suitable in the future.

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Figure S4.1. Continued.

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Figure S4.2. For each of the SCAP species, predicted future (2050) environmental suitability (with discounted uncertainty, see methods) of occurrence cells at the western Palearctic scale and at the French scale in relation to their protection status, according to scenario B2A. Each point is a 0.1° occurrence cell. The horizontal line represents the cut-off of suitability below which conditions are predicted to become unsuitable. Protected: occurrence cells considered protected at a threshold of 50% coverage by protected areas of IUCN categories Ia, Ib, II. Unprotected: occurrence cells in areas without protection (or below the threshold of 50% coverage), or with protection belonging to IUCN categories III, IV, V or VI (see methods).

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Appendix S5 Uncertainty analysis

Figure S5.1 For each species, predicted percentage of areas becoming suitable as a function of the predicted percentage of current range becoming unsuitable in the future, for the 3 global circulation models, the 3 pseudo-absence runs and the 3 cross-validation runs of the 8 modelling techniques. Results are separated per emission scenario (A1B, B2A). Dashed lines: net range change equal to zero. Above the line, the net range change is positive, below the line, the net range change is negative.

$j:\scap2\outputs\fig.s4.1a.png$ Figure S5.1 Continued

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Figure S5.2 For each species, density plots of the predicted values of range change according to the 3 global circulation models, the 3 pseudo-absence runs and the 3 cross-validation runs of the 8 modelling techniques. Lost: percentage of current range predicted to become unsuitable; NetChange: predicted difference between current and future suitable ranges, as a percentage of current range; New: predicted apparition of newly suitable areas, as a percentage of current range.

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Appendix S6. Maps of environmental suitability (with discounted uncertainty; see methods) of all the known populations of each species by 2050 according to scenario A1B.
Figure S6.1 Arctosa fulvolineata

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Figure S6.2 Argyroneta aquatica

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Figure S6.3 Dolomedes plantarius

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Figure S6.4 Enoplognatha mordax

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Figure S6.5 Icius subinermis

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Figure S6.6 Neon valentulus

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Figure S6.7 Pardosa bifasciata

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Figure S6.8 Pardosa oreophila

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Figure S6.9 Pirata uliginosus

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Figure S6.10 Trochosa spinipalpis

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